Archive for March, 2009

The Wall Street Rally- Dead Cat Bounce

Wednesday, March 25th, 2009

The rally on Wall Street that has everyone so excited is a technical bounce.

Dear friends, the recession is not over, and the market has not bottomed out.

look for a back and forth movement for a while, possibly several months, but the trend over the intermediate term , according to Fat Louie the Duck, is still going to be down, down, down.( Please excuse the play on words, I just couldn’t resist.You know downe, a ducks feathers)

Anyway, the fundimental problems with the economy are still broken, and all of this stimulating action is a band aid at best, and a negative long term disaster  leading up to that Two Ton Gorilla I have spoken about in the past STAG FLATION!

Stagflation is the real problem coming our way. Just wait until the $5-10 Trillion of paper money gets into the market. We will be chasing our tails for hard good,with  increasingly worthless dollars.

Not a pretty site.

Watch your backs my dear friends.

We will prevail!

We just have to get back to our traditional American Judeo Christian values.

Oh yes, the Wall Street Rally

Thursday, March 12th, 2009

SELL ! SELL ! SELL !

This is a false tecnical rally in a prolongued bear market.

We are still waiting to be stimulated . What has been wasted so far is only a few TRILLION Dollars. There is much more to come.

Don’t look forward to it, it won’t be pretty .

Bernie Madoff off to jail, Wall Street false rally

Thursday, March 12th, 2009

As I have told you before(see Charlie Champion on Wall Street) Bernie Madoff, and my x wife’s uncle, gave me my start on Wall Street in the late 1960’s.

I learned to be an O T C trader sitting between Bernie Madoff, and Marty Joel at an old wooden trading desk, with 10 incoming  phone lines and maybe 50 dirct lines to other firms and order desks. This was at 39 Broadway , just around the corned from Wall Street.

This was in the days before NASDAQ, and the action was exciting and very active.

I learned a great many lessons which have helped me to think quickly and react with alacrity throughout my life.

I also learned the value of my word  and the importance of integrity .

The revalation last fall that one of my teachers had fallen so far and perverted his repuation so deeply is a source of shame and embarassment to all good people everywhere.

Greed is an easy lure to the Dark Side, and Bernie surely is on his way to his just rewards in this life and beyond.

Sorry day , in a sorry week, in a sorry month of what promises to be a VERY sorry year.

The Winter that wouldn’t end,How Fat Louie the Duck Froze his Tail Feathers a Parable about Global Warming

Tuesday, March 3rd, 2009

Fat Louie was a fat fluffy white duck. He lived in a man made pond  called Snapfinger Woods Lake.The pond was located east of Atlanta, and had been created as an amenity for the residents of Snapfinger Woods Estates, a small failed condominium complex that had gone broke,and been converted to rental units.

Fat Louie was called Fat because he was the fastest swimmer of the 12 to 14 ducks who called Snapfinger Woods Lake their home. Every day, the human residents would throw bread, cake, pizza  crusts, and other assorted unhealthy foods into the pond.

The ducks would race  for the food. Fat Louie being the fastest, would usually get there first. He would eat,and eat,and eat some more. Soon,Louie was the fatest duck in the pond.

When Fat Louie developed the gout as a result of eating too much rich food, he was forced out of the pond by the rest of the flock, who considered him defective due to his infirmity.

Following several years of unusually heavy rainfall,Atlanta, and the Southeast in general had suffered through a fairly severe drought, reaching a  high or perhaps low point during the Summer.

When Fat Louie’s recently purchased overflow culvert/home dried up, he defaulted on his mortgage, and lost his home to foreclosure  becoming part of the  subprime statistic.The bad luck of a recession and the untimely drought had  hurt everyone .

Even a fat white duck.

The low water levels and lean times resulted in Fat Louie dropping some  weight. His gout disappeared.and as a result,the other ducks allowed him back into  Snapfinger Woods Lake.

Halloween night in Atlanta was unusually chilly. The  trick or treaters were forced to wear sweaters and jackets, a most unusual occurence that early in the season. The children argued, the parents grumbled, and everyone  shrugged it off as an aberration. After all  global warming was bringing elevated temperatures  and melting ice caps.

Just not this year.

Fat Louie’s downe came in thicker and earlier than in past years.

Fat Louie was invited to a family reunion by his cousins in New York .The reunion was an annual affair usually lasting   for most of the month of November. Donald and Donna Duck, were residents of Hempstead Lake State Park, and this year was New York’s turn to host the festivities.

Donald and Donna had been planning the event starting the day that last years ended. They caught a ride back to Long Island , from Minnesota’s Thousand Lakes, on a poulty truck.  The meetings and committee formations  began as soon as they reached their home.

Accommodation’s and food for several thousand relatives had to be balanced with ecological concerns.

Preserving Nature was a fowl obligation,and the Duck family took it seriously.

November was always the chosen month.It was  Fall yet still mild enough to  allow the family time to migrate  to Wintering destinations before it became too cold to travel.

Fat Louie and 2000- 2500 of his relatives descended upon Hempstead Lake State Park shortly after Halloween.

The weather in New York was also cooler than usual, and became very cold midway through the month.

The celebrations were attended with great enthusiasm by most members of the Duck family, but several of the wild cousins sensing the onset of early Winter , organized their flight formations, and left for winter homes in warmer climates.

By Thanksgiving, the cold blast of winter chill accompanied by blustery winds and single digit wind chills, took the joy out of the Duck family reunion .

The day following Thanksgiving, the assembled Ducks awoke to the news that Grandpa Quillion Duck, the Duck family elder had died of frost during the night.

The panic spread like a Chicken Hawk on the prowl.

The Duck  family took to flight, knocking into each other  , flying in panicked circles.

The cold weather had come early . Heading south was a matter of life and death.

On the lake, some cooler heads prevailed.” Let them go”quacked Fat Louie.” This is the age of global warming.

This cold weather is just an accident. 

Probably the coldest day of the year.”

Epilogue: The winter that seems endless is still dragging on.

 Record cold weather has lingered from Halloween night (Oct.31st) almost without respite.

Multiple layers and wearing hats has become more of a necessity less a fashion statement.

And its only the end of February.

Well the good news is that despite the prolonged uninterrupted cold, we havn’t had very much snow. Snow would make things really miserable.

If it wasn’t for global warming we would really be in trouble.

Maybe even be into a new Ice Age.